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Fantasy Forecast: Week 16

James Morris hails from Rio Rancho, NM and has been playing fantasy sports for well over a decade. Not only does he write the Bengals fantasy section, but he also does the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Diego Chargers fantasy sections, as well as the Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz fantasy basketball sections in the NBA. Last season James finished with an 82 percent accuracy rating for fantasy predictions and will be here to answer any questions you may have about your specific team. Just send him an email and he will reply back the same day with your answer.

Here we are fantasy fans, the fantasy football championship game and the final fantasy article of the season. You've stuck with it all season and you've made it to the mountaintop and now it is time to snatch that first place trophy and hold it high above your head in all your glory. Read on young grasshoppers and follow me to the finish line!


Alex Smith: Smith and the 49ers face off against the lowly Detroit Lions, which means he is a solid top 5 start this week. If you happen to own Payton Manning or Donovan McNabb, give Smith a look.

Aaron Rodgers: The Seahawks are the 29th-ranked team against the pass and they give up the fourth-most passing TDs. The Packers are 15th in run offense, but they are eighth in passing offense, which means they are a better bet to pass than run and Rodgers will be the winner in the fantasy equation.

Jerome Harrison: Now, let me preface this by saying I am skeptical because Harrison plays for the Browns. But, when news broke that Brady Quinn would miss the rest of the season and Derek Anderson would take over the offense, Harrison got a little sexier than he was yesterday.

Beanie Wells: The Rams are 27th against the run and 22nd against the pass, which means after Warner does his damage, the team will hand the ball off to Wells. Wells is a beast that is going to be a top 10 fantasy RB pick next year, but this week he is a RB2 play for sure.

Michael Crabtree: I've been very leery of playing Crabtree this season because rookie WRs generally struggle to produce fantasy points. But, Crabtree has shown he can make the big plays and Alex Smith seems to trust him. I'd play Crabtree as a solid WR2 this weekend.

Greg Jennings: Jennings has not been the same receiver this year that he was last year, but I'm sure you know that. Last year he averaged 80.8 YPG and this season that average is down to 69.5 YPG. Despite the down numbers, I like Rodgers this weekend and I think the success will transfer over to Jennings.

Jermichael Finley: I'm not a real big fan of Finley, but I have a lot of faith in Rodgers to shred the Seattle defense this weekend. Finley faces the same target problems Wallace does later in the article, but Finley has three touchdowns over the past three games and I think he can catch another one this weekend too.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: The 49ers are on a lot of waiver wires but the Lions have a way of turning fantasy benches into fantasy starters. I'd play San Francisco as a top 3 fantasy defense this weekend because Drew Stanton took the first-team reps at the early portion of Lions practice Wednesday and is expected to start against the 49ers Sunday.


Peyton Manning: I am actually ranking Manning outside of my top 12, which means I don't see him worth playing as even a low-end QB1 this weekend. The Jets are No. 1 against the pass, they are No. 1 in passing TDs allowed, and they have Darrelle Revis to shut down Reggie Wayne.

Eli Manning: The other Manning brother faces the Panthers this weekend and as bad as their record is, their pass defense is fourth in the NFL. I'm not a real fan of the Giants offense and I think they will find more points via the run than they will from the pass, so I am going to pass on Eli and Peyton this weekend.

DeAngelo Williams: Williams left late in the first quarter with a left ankle sprain and there is no word on his status for this week. Now there is speculation that the Panthers may let Williams walk when his contract is up after the 2010 season. Don't be surprised to see Jonathan Stewart finish the season out.

Knowshon Moreno: Moreno hasn't been the fantasy back I had hoped he would; he is in a Denver offense we are so used to making average RBs look like Pro Bowl backs. It goes to show that a head coach can make a huge difference and this week Moreno faces the 10th-ranked Eagles run defense. His 3.9 YPC, 6 TDs, and four fumbles give me enough reason to sit him to finish off the fantasy season.

Reggie Wayne: I don't like Wayne at all this weekend because of Revis and the rest of the Jets secondary. I wouldn't expect more than WR3 stats from Wayne this weekend and I bet you have better options either on the bench or on your waiver wire right now.

Mike Wallace: Wallace had 79 yards receiving and two touchdowns last week, which means people will want to play him this weekend hoping for more of the same. The problem with Wallace is that he only gets targeted 4.5 times a game and you can't count on numbers from a guy that hardly gets thrown to.

Jeremy Shockey: Hopefully you still don't own Shockey, but I know some of you do because I get emails all the time asking if Shockey should be started. Shockey didn't play last week and hasn't scored since Week 6, which means you should let him be someone else's headache from now on.

New York Jets Defense: As down as I am with Manning and Wayne, I don't think the Colts will lose this one. They are bound to score some points and the more they score, the worse the Jets defense will do this weekend.


Q: I read your articles on the website and love them! It invited me to contact you with questions or comments, and since I made it to the league finals, here is my question:

Roster is: Brees, Barber, Tomlinson, V. Jackson, Crabtree, Foschi TE, SF defense and Gostkowksi K.

Have benched Reggie Wayne for fear of Colts sitting and had Shockey but picked up Dave Thomas on the bench as well.  Shockey may play instead but has not performed well in the last half of the season for me or N.O. I chose to play Foschi against K.C. coming off a career game and a weak opponent.

Play Wayne? In lieu of whom? Go three WR and one RB or stick with Barber and Tomlinson? Trade one RB or the other for our wonder boy Harrison (available) who plays again at home against Oakland?
--Paul in Angel Fire, NM

A: Congrats on making it to the league finals and thank you for reading the article!

No, I wouldn't play Reggie Wayne this weekend. Revis is sure to be on him and I have the same concerns about the Colts sitting their stars if they get up early on the Jets. Instead, I'd play Jackson and Crabtree over Wayne.

At TE, are Jermichael Finley, Bo Scaife or Kevin Boss available over Shockey or Foschi? Try snagging Jerome Harrison off waivers and cut Foschi loose for him. If you can get Harrison, play Tomlinson and Harrison at RB and Crabtree and Jackson at WR.

Let me just say that I truly appreciate all the readers and people who email with their questions and comments. Good luck this week and make sure you let me know how you finished the season.

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